So this is the thing that’s been rattling around my head all week. The SpaceX IPO is no longer some far-off rumor people argue about on Reddit. It’s real, it has a date, and it’s close. Like, ten-days-away close. And I still don’t know whether I’m going to touch it.
Let me back up for anyone who hasn’t been following. SpaceX filed its S-1 with the SEC on May 20, confirming it’ll list on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. Pricing is set for June 11, with the first day of trading expected June 12, and the investor roadshow kicking off the week of June 8. If those dates hold — and that’s a real “if,” since the SEC can always slow things down — we’re talking about the biggest IPO that has ever happened. SpaceXChartPure Power Picks
And I don’t say that lightly. The target valuation is around $1.75 trillion, with a raise of up to $75 billion, which more than doubles the previous record Saudi Aramco set back in 2019. Read that again. More than double. For perspective, Aramco raised about $29.4 billion, and SpaceX’s planned offering would surpass that by more than 2.5 times. A company going public at roughly the size of Meta or Berkshire — businesses that took decades to get there — on day one. It’s a little hard to wrap my head around, honestly. SpaceXChartCrypto News
The part that actually makes me want in
Here’s what stops me from just dismissing it as hype. The numbers underneath aren’t nothing. SpaceX pulled in $18.7 billion in revenue for 2025, up from $14.1 billion the year before — a 33% jump — and reported $6.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA profit. Starlink is clearly the engine here, and it’s an engine that keeps revving. That’s not a story stock with a slide deck and a dream. There’s a real, growing business inside it. BitMEX
The retail angle is interesting too. A lot of these mega-IPOs basically lock out regular people, but this one’s different. SpaceX is reportedly carving out 30 percent of the float for retail, routed through Robinhood, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab — the largest direct-to-retail allocation an IPO this size has ever offered. Whether I actually get any allocation is another question entirely, but the door isn’t bolted shut, and that’s rare. Pure Power Picks
The part that makes me want to sit on my hands
But then I keep coming back to the messier details, and this is where my gut tightens up.
First, the financials aren’t clean. SpaceX merged with Elon’s AI company xAI, and that’s bleeding around $2.5 billion a quarter in AI-related losses, which is what creates that gap between the EBITDA profit and the GAAP loss. So depending on which number you stare at, this is either a profit machine or a money pit. Both are technically true. That ambiguity makes me nervous. BitMEX
Second, the control structure. Elon holds about 42% of the equity but 85% of the votes. I’m not saying that’s good or bad — plenty of founder-led companies run that way — but as a small shareholder I’d basically be along for whatever ride he decides on, with no real say. You have to be honest with yourself about that going in. BitMEX
And third, the most boring but most important one: buying a hyped IPO in its first days isn’t really “investing,” at least not the way I usually think about it. It’s closer to trading earnings — a violent, emotional price-discovery period where the chart can whip in either direction before anyone knows what the thing is actually worth. I’ve gotten burned chasing day-one momentum before, and I don’t love who I become when I do it.
Can you even buy it right now?
Short answer, not directly — not until it lists. The closest pre-IPO exposure most people can get is the Cambria ERShares ETF (XOVR), which has reportedly held a large SpaceX position via an SPV, and there’s also indirect exposure through Alphabet, which owns a chunk of shares. I looked into it. It’s not the same as owning SPCX, and I’d want to understand exactly what I’m buying before going that route. SpaceXChart
Where I’ve landed (for now)
My honest plan, if you can even call it that: I’m not buying on day one. I want to watch the open, let the first wave of euphoria and panic burn off, and see where it actually settles after a week or two. If I do buy, it’ll be small — money I’d genuinely be okay losing — and I’ll decide my exit before I click, not after the first scary candle.
That’s the discipline I keep telling myself, anyway. We’ll see if I actually hold to it when June 12 rolls around and the whole internet is screaming about it. I’m only human.
If you’re planning to play the SpaceX IPO — or deliberately sitting it out — I’d really like to hear how you’re thinking about it. Drop a comment. I’m clearly still figuring this out myself.
This is just me thinking out loud, not financial advice. Do your own homework before risking real money.